Posts

I apply time-series modeling after using GIS methods and image data from NASA satellites to investigate the local effects of civil conflicts on economic growth. I convert image data to geo-coded night-time light-emissions data first, and then estimate the change of economic growth in the grid level.

Using multilevel Bayesian logistic modeling via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations (MCMC), this research note investigates three hypotheses on the potential determinants of military coup success; namely plotter ranking, civilian disobedience, and incumbents’ counterbalancing forces.